Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5526…e1c2 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-3%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day80.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 41% -11.0%
≤30d 63 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 41% -11.0%
≤90d 63 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 41% -11.0%
all 63 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 41% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 41% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 35% -19.5%
15% -37.3% 27% -27.3%
20% -43.5% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day80.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$41 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$117 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$28 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$47 +443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$17 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $68 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $69 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $72 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records