Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
55 0x5529…e5b9 politics 607 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$11,817 (+20%) realized +$10,676 · open +$1,141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +180% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip
Net edge+116%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate80%213W / 53L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$38,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$30,108
other 14% +$979
weather 3% +$26
world 2% +$1,363
crypto 0% +$19
finance 0% −$70
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+153.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +116.8% +96.1% 78% 29% +22.6%
≤30d 244 +188.5% +161.1% 80% 37% +56.5%
≤90d 266 +180.5% +153.8% 80% 39% +56.5%
all 266 +180.5% +153.8% 80% 39% +56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +153.8% 39% +56.5%
10% ← realistic here +129.5% 35% +41.5%
15% +107.4% 30% +27.9%
20% +87.0% 28% +15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +181% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +118% → late +243% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$11 · ×13.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54.54 per $1 lost it wins $54.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$38,327
Realized+$10,676
Unrealized+$1,141
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses213 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions472
Markets (closed)266 / 607
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 472 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,648 $1,643 −$5 (-0%)
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 90¢ 91¢ $1,046 $1,054 +$8 (+1%)
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary? No 99¢ 99¢ $869 $870 +$1 (+0%)
Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? No 84¢ 100¢ $701 $826 +$125 (+18%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 76¢ 91¢ $670 $800 +$129 (+19%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $752 $748 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $595 $686 +$91 (+15%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $571 $607 +$36 (+6%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $509 $592 +$83 (+16%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $563 $590 +$27 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $576 $569 −$8 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $527 $537 +$10 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $524 $515 −$9 (-2%)
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No 71¢ 93¢ $374 $495 +$121 (+32%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $407 $409 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 84¢ 81¢ $417 $404 −$13 (-3%)
Will Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No 94¢ 98¢ $382 $396 +$13 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat? No 96¢ 96¢ $386 $383 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $290 $356 +$65 (+22%)
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 88¢ $368 $351 −$17 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $342 $345 +$3 (+1%)
Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? No 97¢ 99¢ $332 $339 +$6 (+2%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 34¢ 86¢ $117 $298 +$181 (+155%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $285 $284 −$2 (-1%)
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $273 $278 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Jun 17 $59 +$169 +285%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $79 +$44 +56%
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $21 +$154 +742%
Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $229 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $850 +$297 +35%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $268 +$129 +48%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 17 $1,290 +$101 +8%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $298 +$1,539 +517%
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +88%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Defonsio Daniels be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Randy Zurcher be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $349 $0 +0%
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Joseph Palimeno be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $371 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Wilver be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Sharon Stokes-Williamson be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +4%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $112 +$3 +3%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 16 $34 +$5 +16%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat? Jun 16 $191 +$3 +1%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $4 +$429 +12075%
Will Lateefah Simon receive the most votes in the CA-12 primary? Jun 16 $587 +$2 +0%
Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $293 $0 +0%
Will Matt Ortega advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Carin Elam advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $732 +$1 +0%
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $1 +$17 +2439%
Will Jotham Stein advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $989 +$1 +0%
Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $216 $0 +0%
Will Peter Sundin Soulé advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $298 $0 +0%
Will Aisha Wahab advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $284 $0 +0%
Will Victor Aguilar Jr. advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $291 $0 +0%
Will Suzanne Chenault advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $52 +$66 +128%
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $414 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime Jun 16 $46 +$2 +3%
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $224 +$30 +13%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 56¢ $2 7m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 56¢ $16 7m
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? SELL No 89¢ $107 47m
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? SELL Yes 85¢ $43 47m
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 61¢ $30 1h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL No 8¢ $4 2h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 8¢ $4 2h
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 74¢ $13 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 74¢ $7 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 74¢ $3 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 74¢ $48 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 74¢ $7 3h
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL No 62¢ $0 5h
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 5h
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 5h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 5h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 92¢ $23 5h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 6h
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary elec SELL Yes 61¢ $30 6h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 66¢ $32 7h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 66¢ $1 7h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 7h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 71¢ $6 7h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 7h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 7h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 7h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,327.29 · official $38,320.78 (match) · 3500 history records