Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x5529…db4a other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5
world 26% −$1
politics 26% −$6
tech 9% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$911) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage84d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser May 29 $30 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 27 $954 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 27 $903 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 26 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $944 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $878 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,191 1h
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $814 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $345 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 2h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 28d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 28d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 28d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 28d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL No 91¢ $12 28d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser SELL No 91¢ $17 28d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 28d
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Ser BUY No 91¢ $30 28d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $910 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $878 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 30d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $642 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $260 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $903 30d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $73 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.16 · official $26.16 (match) · 79 history records