Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5530…8ca0 weather 1146 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$942 (+1%) realized +$966 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate95%1086W / 54L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$153
14 days+$7
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 12% -8.1%
≤30d 672 -2.5% -11.8% 93% 12% -10.2%
≤90d 1140 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 12% -8.5%
all 1140 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 12% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 2% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$50 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$966
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1086 / 54
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1140 / 1146
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $109 $130 +$21 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $57 $61 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $128 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$28 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$17 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $107 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $111 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$22 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $94 +$26 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $104 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $113 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $61 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 79¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $63 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $128 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $63 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $104 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $64 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $103 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $26 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $64 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 29h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $35 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.60 · official $377.01 (match) · 3500 history records