Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5530…d38d sports 1169 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41,682 (-21%) realized −$41,510 · open −$172
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%513W / 651L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$1,848est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$11,783
other 10% −$934
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -14.2% -22.4% 46% 44% -18.4%
≤30d 875 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 44% -16.5%
≤90d 1164 -10.4% -19.0% 44% 42% -15.3%
all 1164 -10.4% -19.0% 44% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 42% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 39% -23.4%
15% -33.8% 35% -30.8%
20% -40.3% 27% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$94 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$41,510
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses513 / 651
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,848
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1164 / 1169
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$169
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 44¢ 62¢ $22 $32 +$9 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 26¢ $117 $2 −$115 (-98%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 21¢ $37 $0 −$36 (-100%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 20¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner G2 Ares 37¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $511 +$31 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $151 −$54 -36%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $44 +$17 +40%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $490 +$20 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $293 +$35 +12%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$36 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$29 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +238%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $95 −$94 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$33 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $702 −$697 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $227 −$224 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $79 +$73 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $330 −$328 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $125 −$124 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $409 +$94 +23%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 14 $67 +$40 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $48 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $612 −$88 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $149 −$147 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $538 +$80 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $137 +$44 +32%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $42 +$80 +189%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $55 +$41 +75%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $29 +$32 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $56 −$52 -93%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $55 +$47 +86%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $212 +$139 +66%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $110 +$40 +37%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $109 +$28 +26%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$7 +17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $21 +$39 +190%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz $6 19m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $12 42m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 10¢ $11 48m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $151 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 22¢ $27 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $1 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 19¢ $9 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 19¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 37¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 44¢ $23 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $271 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 55¢ $30 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 33¢ $21 3h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $10 3h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $1 3h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $61 3h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $511 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $489 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $14 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 5h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $490 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $176 6h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $101 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $152 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.89 · official $33.89 (match) · 3500 history records