Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5534…ea34 crypto 139 markets active 2d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate81%113W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$7
other 27% −$1
sports 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.6% -21.8% 67% 50% -13.4%
≤30d 75 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 29% -10.3%
≤90d 139 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 34% -11.7%
all 139 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 34% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 34% -11.7%
10% -17.4% 23% -20.1%
15% -25.4% 12% -27.8%
20% -32.7% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses113 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 $0 +40%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -69%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 $0 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 $0 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 $0 +10%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 +$2 +74%
Will Saint-Etienne vs. Nice end in a draw? May 27 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 19 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 19 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 7d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 7d
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 87¢ $2 9d
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 9d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 9d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 13d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 14d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 15d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 17d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records