Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5534…eb60 crypto 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$828 (-8%) realized −$827 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%169W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$241
tech 26% −$398
sports 18% −$240
politics 10% −$136
crypto 7% +$33
world 2% +$9
economics 1% −$13
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +43.0% +29.4% 44% 37% -13.4%
≤30d 43 +43.0% +29.4% 44% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 70 +25.4% +13.5% 49% 43% -19.5%
all 352 -1.8% -11.1% 48% 46% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 46% -17.7%
10% -19.6% 44% -25.6%
15% -27.4% 41% -32.8%
20% -34.5% 34% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$827
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses169 / 183
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage232d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$7 +712%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$11 -21%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$31 +596%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$11 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +800%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$28 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$39 -39%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +414%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 02 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? May 02 $10 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $10 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $40 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $3 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $6 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.23 · official $99.23 (match) · 734 history records