Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x5537…f9c8 sports 582 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,492 (-7%) realized −$5,096 · open −$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%312W / 257L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$621est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,126
7 days−$1,603
14 days−$2,789
30 days−$6,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,595
other 16% −$2,859
crypto 8% +$215
world 0% −$107
finance 0% +$21
culture 0% +$39
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -35.5% -41.6% 35% 35% -33.5%
≤30d 180 -14.1% -22.3% 49% 48% -27.8%
≤90d 498 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 49% -19.3%
all 569 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 54% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 54% -14.9%
10% -20.4% 52% -23.1%
15% -28.1% 44% -30.5%
20% -35.1% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$125 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized−$5,096
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses312 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$621
Open positions11
Markets (closed)569 / 582
History coverage377d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 55¢ $295 $272 −$22 (-8%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $210 $127 −$83 (-40%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 26¢ $174 $124 −$50 (-29%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 14¢ $247 $74 −$173 (-70%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 18¢ 10¢ $88 $45 −$43 (-48%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $203 +$189 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $430 +$570 +133%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $638 +$462 +72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 28 $309 −$309 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 28 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $755 −$755 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $376 −$369 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 28 $177 −$100 -56%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $209 +$91 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$137 +67%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $200 +$100 +50%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $57 −$22 -39%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $115 +$85 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $476 +$224 +47%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $202 +$89 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $521 +$242 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $152 +$89 +59%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $340 +$160 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$145 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $76 +$124 +163%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $174 +$126 +72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $136 +$64 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 +$78 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 19 $195 −$195 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 19 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $376 −$376 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 19 $395 −$395 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $507 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $387 +$177 +46%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 +$50 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $123 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $295 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $38 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $74 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $147 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $430 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 6h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $77 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 26¢ $77 29h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $300 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $638 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $75 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $450 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $96 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,307.75 · official $1,307.75 (match) · 1868 history records