Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5539…19f8 sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-9%) realized −$167 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%45W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$30
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$119
crypto 13% −$73
world 0% −$3
other 0% −$6
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.5% +35.3% 100% 100% +33.9%
≤30d 120 -22.9% -30.3% 37% 37% -16.5%
≤90d 122 -22.3% -29.7% 37% 37% -16.7%
all 122 -22.3% -29.7% 37% 37% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 37% -16.7%
10% -36.4% 36% -24.7%
15% -42.5% 36% -32.0%
20% -48.2% 34% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses45 / 77
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage33d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs TDK 55¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $51 +$29 +58%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $74 +$31 +41%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $18 +$24 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $27 +$30 +111%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$27 +177%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -95%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$16 +372%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$12 +58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $43 −$10 -24%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $16 +$25 +152%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs INFURITY Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $42 +$25 +58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $25 +$17 +68%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $25 +$10 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $39 −$39 -99%
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 04 $28 +$11 +38%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $17 +$11 +63%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $22 −$5 -22%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$1 -18%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Jun 03 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play SELL summer bear 100¢ $80 18m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $105 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $74 2h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play BUY summer bear 63¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 55¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 28¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner BUY NEW VISION 45¢ $26 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $15 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $42 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $18 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner BUY BALU 41¢ $22 10d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner SELL Nande+4 100¢ $58 10d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner BUY Nande+4 47¢ $27 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $49 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League SELL VENOM ESPOR 99¢ $61 10d
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League BUY VENOM ESPOR 57¢ $35 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $42 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $15 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 11d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 200 history records