Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5539…5cbe
other · 441 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,649 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,665 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$178
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses146 / 293
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)439 / 441
Avg bet$34
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 2 History 439 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$41
14 days−$1,342
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $82 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $127 +$395 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $86 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $86 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $73 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $64 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $58 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $59 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $89 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $61 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $39 −$27 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$16 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$59 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$15 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$1,924
crypto 43% +$53
sports 4% −$162
finance 1% −$69
world 0% −$41
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $24 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $73 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $19 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $12 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $27 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $286 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $54 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 27% -7.9%
≤30d 346 -26.3% -33.3% 32% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 388 -17.8% -25.7% 33% 24% -8.1%
all 439 -6.3% -15.2% 33% 24% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 24% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 21% -8.6%
15% -30.7% 19% -17.4%
20% -37.5% 16% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.47 · official $178.47 (match) · 3500 history records