trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | No | 13¢ | 28¢ | $20 | $43 | +$23 (+116%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 39¢ | 32¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-19%) |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 23¢ | $20 | $14 | −$6 (-28%) |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? | Yes | 47¢ | 53¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+12%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-21%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Spread: Czechia (-2.5) | Czechia | 4¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $10 | −$1 | -6% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain | Jun 11 | $10 | −$2 | -18% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Czechia (-2.5) | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 09 | $10 | +$39 | +391% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian | Jun 01 | $36 | +$49 | +138% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $25 | +$11 | +44% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -10.2% | -18.8% | 22% | 22% | -18.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 36% | 36% | +21.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 33% | +6.9% |
| all | 12 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 33% | +6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.3% | 33% | +6.9% |
| 10% | -18.9% | 33% | -3.3% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 33% | -12.7% |
| 20% | -33.9% | 17% | -21.2% |