Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x5540…f4c4 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1
politics 29% $0
economics 12% $0
sports 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage113d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $109 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $109 15h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 42h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 16d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $109 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $109 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $110 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $110 33d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 43d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 43d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $111 64d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 65d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 68d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 68d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 73d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 74d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 84d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 85d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $111 94d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $111 95d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $111 95d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 96d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 97d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 98d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 99d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 99d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 102d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records