Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5540…be83 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 28% −$23
politics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 84 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 192 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage128d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $439 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $551 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $317 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $236 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $337 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $659 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 38m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 8h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 10h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $47 11h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 21h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 22h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 47h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1289 history records