Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x5540…9c18 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3
other 8% +$29
politics 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤30d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤90d 3 +65.4% +49.6% 100% 100% +34.4%
all 34 -3.3% -12.6% 53% 50% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -9.4%
10% -20.9% 47% -18.1%
15% -28.6% 44% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 26% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage267d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 58¢ 56¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 12 $24 +$14 +60%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Spread: FK Pardubice (-2.5) Mar 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Mar 08 $26 +$10 +37%
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5 Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5 Mar 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Mar 07 $6 +$3 +43%
LoL: Vantex Esports vs The Otter Side (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Mar 07 $6 +$3 +41%
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Tristan Boyer Mar 04 $43 +$16 +37%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 26.5 Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5 Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Game Handicap: CRZ (-1.5) vs Periquitos Zangados (+1.5) Feb 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) Feb 21 $40 −$8 -20%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? Feb 20 $6 +$5 +79%
LoL: Misa Esports vs S2G Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Feb 20 $20 +$5 +25%
Tigre: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Miguel Damas Feb 18 $1 +$1 +82%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Feb 16 $34 +$23 +70%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Rebels Gaming (+1.5) Feb 16 $21 +$4 +19%
New Delhi: Karan Singh vs Daniel Michalski Feb 16 $20 +$10 +47%
Shapovalov vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5 Feb 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $9 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Feb 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Feb 13 $15 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Garin (-1.5) vs Barrios (+1.5) Feb 10 $28 −$2 -7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $23 +$17 +72%
Game Handicap: S2G (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Feb 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 Feb 05 $34 +$49 +146%
Badosa vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 02 $110 −$12 -11%
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 20.5 Feb 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Sep 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $27 1h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 58¢ $13 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $35 2d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Carlos Ulberg 50¢ $1 70d
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? BUY No 62¢ $24 70d
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 23¢ $8 104d
Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 32¢ $7 105d
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) BUY Bruins 73¢ $26 106d
Spread: FK Pardubice (-2.5) BUY MFK Karviná 96¢ $29 106d
LoL: Vantex Esports vs The Otter Side (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs BUY The Otter Side 71¢ $6 107d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Vancouver Surge 70¢ $6 109d
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $9 110d
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Tristan Boyer BUY Adolfo Vallejo 73¢ $43 110d
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $6 111d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $35 111d
Game Handicap: CRZ (-1.5) vs Periquitos Zangados (+1.5) BUY Periquitos Zangados 21¢ $16 114d
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) SELL largadosypelados 51¢ $32 119d
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) BUY largadosypelados 64¢ $40 119d
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? BUY No 56¢ $6 121d
LoL: Misa Esports vs S2G Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 80¢ $20 122d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Rebels Gaming (+1.5) SELL Rebels Gaming 50¢ $25 124d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 59¢ $34 124d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Rebels Gaming (+1.5) BUY Rebels Gaming 42¢ $21 124d
New Delhi: Karan Singh vs Daniel Michalski BUY Michalski 68¢ $20 125d
Tigre: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Miguel Damas BUY Zarate 55¢ $1 125d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag SELL Team Nemesis 50¢ $15 127d
Shapovalov vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 127d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $15 128d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Alliance 51¢ $41 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $42.54 (match) · 61 history records