Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5544…ad93 crypto 162 markets active 4d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,957 (-8%) realized −$1,929 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%85W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$83
14 days−$78
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,173
world 1% +$99
finance 0% −$92
politics 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 +65.2% +49.5% 33% 33% -1.3%
≤90d 160 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 51% -18.0%
all 160 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 51% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 51% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 46% -25.8%
15% -40.4% 21% -33.0%
20% -46.2% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$101 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,929
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses85 / 75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage70d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $22 $3 −$18 (-84%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2AM ET May 20 $93 +$11 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 20 $8 +$92 +1150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11AM ET Apr 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$15 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6AM ET Apr 08 $136 −$135 -99%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 6AM ET Apr 08 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 08 $93 +$64 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5AM ET Apr 08 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 08 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 08 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 08 $150 +$46 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $42 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 08 $124 +$76 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3AM ET Apr 08 $85 −$43 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 08 $48 +$47 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 08 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2AM ET Apr 08 $145 −$84 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 08 $78 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 08 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 08 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 08 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 08 $70 +$26 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 08 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 08 $104 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1AM ET Apr 08 $58 −$55 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 08 $129 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 08 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 08 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 08 $224 −$221 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 08 $253 +$140 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3PM ET Apr 08 $166 +$33 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 2¢ $2 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 5¢ $7 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 33¢ $7 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 33¢ $26 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 22¢ $15 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 22¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 2200 history records