Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5546…e3cf
crypto · 354 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$2,954 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,954 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses86 / 268
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage110d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$76
14 days−$162
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak James McCabe 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-04-20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-19? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-03-23? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CA Platense win on 2026-04-20? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-17? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$6 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $10 +$24 +236%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 −$13 -63%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$7 -51%
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Robert Strombachs May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $35 −$34 -97%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC end in a draw? May 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Centurion: Guillaume Dalmasso vs Robert Strombachs May 28 $16 −$16 -98%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Hikaru Sato May 28 $36 −$35 -97%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $26 −$21 -82%
Will Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC end in a draw? May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $91 −$89 -98%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? May 27 $49 −$48 -98%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Millonarios FC vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray May 26 $24 −$24 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia May 26 $3 +$9 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$4,334
sports 8% −$1,003
crypto 6% −$275
world 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 3d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -66.5% -69.7% 13% 13% -66.0%
≤30d 212 -13.4% -21.6% 23% 23% +0.7%
≤90d 316 -5.4% -14.4% 23% 22% +6.6%
all 354 -4.4% -13.5% 24% 23% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 23% +5.0%
10% -21.8% 22% -5.0%
15% -29.3% 22% -14.2%
20% -36.3% 20% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 752 history records