Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5547…910a sports 41 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,025 (-11%) realized −$1,025 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$569
sports 47% −$467
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 36% -21.4%
≤30d 36 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 36% -20.5%
≤90d 36 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 36% -20.5%
all 36 -21.5% -29.0% 47% 36% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 36% -20.5%
10% -35.7% 17% -28.1%
15% -42.0% 17% -35.1%
20% -47.6% 14% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$101 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 +$3 +53%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$17 -28%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$106 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $603 +$128 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $166 −$75 -45%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$24 -24%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,070 +$64 +6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $683 +$91 +13%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $901 +$46 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $202 −$139 -69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,213 +$37 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $240 +$15 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$69 -70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$117 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $219 −$216 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,010 +$157 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$17 +276%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $121 −$41 -34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 93¢ $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $6 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 54¢ $6 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $4 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 52¢ $4 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $4 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $2 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 33¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $613 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 51¢ $42 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $506 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $731 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 50¢ $91 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $160 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $78 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $603 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $701 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 97¢ $0 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 97¢ $324 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 88¢ $295 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 81¢ $81 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records