Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x554c…dfe6 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-30%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$43
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 67% -26.5%
≤30d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 67% -26.5%
≤90d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 67% -26.5%
all 6 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 67% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 67% -26.5%
10% -15.9% 50% -33.6%
15% -24.0% 50% -40.0%
20% -31.5% 17% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$41 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $46 +$31 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $103 −$56 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$4 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $46 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $21 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records