Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x554e…cd79 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.5% +15.4% 100% 100% +7.6%
≤30d 2 +27.5% +15.4% 100% 100% +7.6%
≤90d 2 +27.5% +15.4% 100% 100% +7.6%
all 2 +27.5% +15.4% 100% 100% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 100% +7.6%
10% +4.4% 50% -2.7%
15% -5.7% 50% -12.1%
20% -15.0% 0% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $227 +$39 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $0 5m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $8 6m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $15 6m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $3 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $266 22m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $0 30m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $19 30m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.15 · official $148.15 (match) · 11 history records