Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x554e…c5db world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 17% $0
politics 16% −$25
sports 13% +$12
economics 8% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 +7.6% -2.6% 36% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 64 +2.5% -7.2% 36% 5% -9.6%
all 69 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -16.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.5%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage488d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $75 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $108 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $64 +$4 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $92 −$4 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $26 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $36 −$2 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $143 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $33 $0 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 08 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $39 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $7 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $8 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.25 · official $27.47 · 304 history records