Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x554e…211d politics 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$12
politics 37% −$12
sports 7% −$54
tech 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 3% -9.6%
all 121 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×8.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage120d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $410 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $191 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $427 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $334 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $225 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $322 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $415 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $371 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $357 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $353 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 32d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $194 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $194 33d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 33d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records