Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x555b…29af crypto 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$244 (-1%) realized −$288 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%60W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$106
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$611
politics 5% +$84
other 4% +$76
finance 3% +$16
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 53% -18.4%
≤30d 17 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 59% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 60% -8.6%
all 120 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -12.0%
10% -24.8% 38% -20.5%
15% -32.1% 31% -28.1%
20% -38.7% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$88 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses60 / 60
Open positions11
Markets (closed)120 / 131
History coverage124d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $300 $356 +$56 (+19%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 83¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $181 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 08 $101 +$29 +29%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $202 +$76 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 12 $150 +$83 +55%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $100 +$35 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $200 +$34 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -98%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 15 $167 +$43 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 15 $57 −$32 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 15 $60 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 15 $30 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 14 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 14 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 14 $220 +$32 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $133 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,033.81 · official $1,033.81 (match) · 801 history records