Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x555c…44af crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$3
other 26% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -32.9% -39.3% 46% 31% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -32.9% -39.3% 46% 31% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -32.9% -39.3% 46% 31% -9.3%
all 13 -32.9% -39.3% 46% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 31% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 23% -18.0%
15% -50.4% 23% -25.9%
20% -55.3% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $9 −$5 -57%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records