Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x555d…5582 crypto 403 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$619 (+1%) realized +$629 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%204W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,779
other 0% −$10
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -31.2% -37.8% 37% 32% -30.8%
≤30d 398 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 45% -15.2%
≤90d 398 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 45% -15.2%
all 398 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 45% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 45% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 38% -23.4%
15% -39.5% 28% -30.8%
20% -45.4% 20% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$70 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$629
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses204 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)398 / 403
History coverage14d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$62 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $243 +$100 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $84 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $313 −$56 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $215 −$205 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$41 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $316 −$303 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $316 −$303 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $135 +$68 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $316 +$276 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$248 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $122 +$182 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $226 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $451 −$432 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$240 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $195 −$186 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$196 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $262 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $170 +$35 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$54 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$32 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $221 +$173 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $220 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $304 −$290 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $263 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $288 +$206 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $347 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $293 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $291 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $209 −$166 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $313 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $314 −$80 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $315 −$17 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $523 +$32 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $72 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $215 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $316 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $316 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $146 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $57 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.06 · official $90.06 (match) · 1094 history records