Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5565…4b3b weather 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (331 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,429 (-6%) realized −$1,389 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate61%604W / 383L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day331.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,075now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$807
crypto 21% +$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (331 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 937 -28.6% -35.4% 60% 14% -26.4%
≤30d 987 -25.4% -32.5% 61% 15% -24.4%
≤90d 987 -25.4% -32.5% 61% 15% -24.4%
all 987 -25.4% -32.5% 61% 15% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover331.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 15% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 3% -31.6%
15% -44.9% 2% -38.2%
20% -50.3% 2% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,075
Realized−$1,389
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses604 / 383
Open positions135
Markets (closed)987 / 840
History coverage9d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day331.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 135 History 987 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 91¢ 87¢ $112 $107 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 93¢ 89¢ $104 $100 −$5 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? No 87¢ 88¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 91¢ 95¢ $55 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 88¢ 96¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 94¢ 99¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 95¢ 92¢ $42 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 91¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? No 97¢ 96¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 93¢ 90¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 87¢ 94¢ $33 $35 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 363 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Spread: Hawks (-2.5) Jun 15 $0 +$2 +386%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Jun 15 $0 −$58 -22698%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$9 -139%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-05? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +959%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 15 $3 −$3 -102%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -340%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 15 $113 −$126 -112%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 15 $2 −$5 -200%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $7 −$9 -122%
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $37 −$74 -200%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jun 15 $3 −$6 -200%
Spread: Suns (-17.5) Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group Sta Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 15 $13 −$27 -200%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$4 -210%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5) Jun 15 $1 −$3 -200%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -140%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$5 -200%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-01? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-12.5) Jun 15 $2 −$3 -200%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 15 $3 −$4 -107%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 15 $10 −$22 -224%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 15 $107 −$141 -131%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Jun 15 $1 −$3 -266%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5 Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Suns (-8.5) Jun 15 $3 −$7 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 15 $14 −$17 -126%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 93¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $5 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $13 37m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $12 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,075.42 · official $3,069.00 (match) · 3500 history records