Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x5566…1da9 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,422 (+25%) realized +$1,423 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate77%106W / 31L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$209
sports 7% +$1,590
other 5% −$292
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +2.8% -7.0% 77% 47% -10.9%
≤30d 136 +2.8% -7.0% 77% 47% -10.9%
≤90d 137 +5.6% -4.4% 77% 47% +14.8%
all 137 +5.6% -4.4% 77% 47% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 47% +14.8%
10% -13.6% 32% +3.9%
15% -21.9% 17% -6.2%
20% -29.6% 9% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,423
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses106 / 31
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage40d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 83¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Down 83¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$36 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $66 +$5 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $237 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $68 +$6 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $171 −$51 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $57 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$33 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $85 +$7 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $131 +$19 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $72 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$17 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$18 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$11 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$14 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$35 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $131 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $84 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$9 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $13 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $65 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $38 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.13 · official $4.01 (match) · 538 history records