Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5566…7c29 weather 811 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,751 (+19%) realized +$10,330 · open −$1,579
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%25W / 529L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day175.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$5,552
politics 27% −$6,934
weather 11% −$2,428
tech 10% −$2,892
economics 10% −$1,668
sports 5% −$1,864
world 2% −$132
culture 1% −$166
crypto 0% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-86.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -91.9% -92.7% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤30d 547 -85.2% -86.6% 3% 1% -92.6%
≤90d 547 -85.2% -86.6% 3% 1% -92.6%
all 547 -85.2% -86.6% 3% 1% -92.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.6% 1% -92.6%
10% ← realistic here -87.9% 1% -93.3%
15% -89.1% 0% -94.0%
20% -90.1% 0% -94.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -79% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$41 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$10,330
Unrealized−$1,579
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses25 / 529
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions226
Markets (closed)554 / 811
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day175.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 226 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 90¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 61¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 38¢ 42¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 65¢ 56¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 13¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 28¢ 27¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 274 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 7? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 26? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$8 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on May 13? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 7? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 13? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on June 1? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 4? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 17? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 25? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will LDLC ASVEL win the 2025-26 Euroleague? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 6? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the second-most council seat elections Jun 21 $0 −$1 -197%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on May 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 21 $6 −$9 -169%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 6? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 23? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 21 $11 −$20 -192%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Albon win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jose Alvarado win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 11? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morgan Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 21 $14 −$15 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 21 $95 −$108 -114%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for less than 8 hours without failure? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 38¢ $19 0m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 61¢ $30 0m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 38¢ $9 6m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 61¢ $14 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 41°C on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 60¢ $37 37m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 39¢ $24 37m
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 42¢ $42 1h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 54¢ $55 1h
Will Morocco be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 50¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 89¢ $10 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 28¢ $3 2h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 98¢ $11 2h
Will Morocco be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 50¢ $1 2h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.65 · official $380.68 (match) · 3500 history records