Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x556b…4e33 weather 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized −$11 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 0% -7.4%
10% -15.8% 0% -16.2%
15% -23.9% 0% -24.3%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? No 91¢ 99¢ $224 $243 +$19 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $221 $226 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 98¢ 100¢ $217 $222 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? No 93¢ 99¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? No 97¢ 92¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $209 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $243 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $132 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $92 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.20 · official $734.63 (match) · 20 history records