Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x5575…c56d sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$147 (+6%) realized +$130 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$371
14 days−$72
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$142
other 3% +$10
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -27.5% -34.4% 37% 37% -41.7%
≤30d 121 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 121 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 52% -5.3%
all 121 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 52% -5.3%
10% -17.0% 52% -14.4%
15% -25.0% 52% -22.7%
20% -32.4% 50% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)121 / 125
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Gentle Mates 58¢ 100¢ $35 $60 +$25 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $42 +$28 +67%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$15 +145%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$15 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $18 +$20 +110%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $19 +$11 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $25 +$14 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $17 +$13 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +128%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$14 +69%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $11 +$11 +97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$20 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$16 +154%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$7 +139%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $20 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $69 5m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 58¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $42 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 52¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 39¢ $18 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 35¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 16h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $15 16h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $50 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $35 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $10 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $7 28h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $38 29h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $18 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 58¢ $10 39h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 58¢ $10 40h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $31 40h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 62¢ $19 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 45¢ $20 44h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $19 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.73 · official $121.27 (match) · 251 history records