Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5576…0a66 politics 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized +$271 · open −$365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%128W / 134L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$318
14 days+$299
30 days+$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$1
other 28% +$2,619
sports 24% −$1,295
world 12% −$1,105
crypto 2% −$116
tech 1% −$96
culture 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.6% -7.1% 32% 32% +20.4%
≤30d 30 -8.9% -17.6% 30% 30% +25.0%
≤90d 36 -12.7% -21.0% 33% 25% +4.1%
all 262 +17.8% +6.6% 49% 32% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 32% -8.7%
10% -3.6% 29% -17.5%
15% -12.9% 25% -25.4%
20% -21.5% 22% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$48 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses128 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage483d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 56¢ 35¢ $976 $611 −$365 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$9 +76%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$7 +636%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $873 +$332 +38%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$15 +474%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -78%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $563 −$4 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $47 +$13 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $11 +$29 +276%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 29 $754 +$600 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $803 +$6 +1%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Apr 13 $1,094 −$10 -1%
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? Apr 07 $4 $0 +9%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Apr 07 $1,379 +$36 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Cost of Living" during the next Prime Minister' Mar 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Interest Rate" be said during the next episode of the All-In Pod Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Black American" 5+ times during the Black History Mont Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Crypto" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Social Security" or "Overtime" or "Tip" 4+ times durin Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Democracy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Russia" or Russian" during the next Prime Minis Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Jensen" or "Huang" be said during the next episode of the All-In Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Mar 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during the Black History Month reception? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Job" 7+ times in Wisconsin on Thursday? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JD Vance say "State of the Union" in Wisconsin on Thursday? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Fri Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $11 18h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $2 19h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $235 22h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 37h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $272 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $216 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $178 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $35 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.02 · official $611.02 (match) · 1397 history records