Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
55 0x557a…3d56 world 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27,259 (+109%) realized +$29,215 · open −$1,956
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,613
7 days+$2,954
14 days+$848
30 days+$4,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$26,994
other 7% −$529
finance 1% −$150
sports 0% +$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+91.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +34.7% +21.9% 29% 29% +40.0%
≤30d 25 +45.9% +32.0% 32% 32% +29.4%
≤90d 32 +96.9% +78.2% 31% 31% +96.5%
all 43 +111.1% +91.0% 28% 28% +117.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.0% 28% +117.1%
10% +72.8% 28% +96.3%
15% +56.1% 26% +77.3%
20% +40.8% 26% +59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +128% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +179% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$590) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +203% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,160 vs −$298 · ×10.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$944
Realized+$29,215
Unrealized−$1,956
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)43 / 57
History coverage112d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $330 $166 −$164 (-50%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $160 $117 −$43 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $44 $112 +$68 (+154%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $80 $53 −$27 (-33%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+49%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $200 $41 −$159 (-79%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $160 $27 −$133 (-83%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $142 $13 −$129 (-91%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1,254 $4 −$1,250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $205 +$565 +275%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $200 +$1,500 +750%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$418 +408%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $590 +$1,670 +283%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1,780 +$1,318 +74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $1,787 −$1,787 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $1,106 −$1,106 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,200 +$68 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5,767 +$3,296 +57%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $150 +$1,166 +777%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $700 −$360 -51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $278 −$278 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $599 −$599 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 3 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $50 −$49 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $45 +$205 +456%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $594 +$13,335 +2246%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $797 −$797 -100%
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6? Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $394 +$12,673 +3213%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $350 +$1,709 +488%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $200 −$22 -11%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 23 $315 −$315 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 9m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 12m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $92 12m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 55¢ $329 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 23¢ $228 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $72 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 28¢ $487 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $718 14h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 17h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 14¢ $495 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $521 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 94¢ $2,260 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $590 35h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $160 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.55 · official $946.69 (match) · 111 history records