Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5583…3def crypto 679 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (186 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,914 (-9%) realized −$6,914 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%317W / 372L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day186.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (186 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -8.4% -17.2% 43% 43% -26.7%
≤30d 689 -7.3% -16.1% 46% 45% -21.3%
≤90d 689 -7.3% -16.1% 46% 45% -21.3%
all 689 -7.3% -16.1% 46% 45% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 45% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 45% -28.8%
15% -31.5% 44% -35.7%
20% -38.2% 42% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$113 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,914
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses317 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)689 / 679
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day186.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 689 Trades
no open positions (346 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$54 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$81 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$80 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $73 +$83 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records