Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5587…24cd politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$1
other 35% −$2
sports 12% $0
economics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage101d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 16h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $94 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $94 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 26d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 26d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 30d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 31d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $95 42d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $95 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 43d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 44d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 45d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 46d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 50d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $96 50d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $97 73d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $28 74d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $69 74d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $97 76d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $97 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $97 78d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $97 78d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 81d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $97 81d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 84d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $97 84d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records