Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5587…5737 sports 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,039 (+6%) realized +$1,143 · open −$104
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%162W / 138L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$135
14 days+$152
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$299
world 16% +$469
other 12% −$106
politics 6% +$140
economics 2% +$134
crypto 1% −$90
tech 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +106.1% +86.5% 75% 38% +14.0%
≤30d 120 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 45% -6.1%
≤90d 299 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 49% -4.5%
all 300 +7.5% -2.7% 54% 49% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 49% -4.2%
10% -12.0% 47% -13.4%
15% -20.5% 45% -21.7%
20% -28.3% 39% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized+$1,143
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses162 / 138
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions10
Markets (closed)300 / 310
History coverage91d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Jun 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? Jun 24 $5 +$37 +711%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $117 +$103 +88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $100 −$4 -4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +54%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $250 $0 +0%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $25 +$11 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$12 +46%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $101 −$34 -33%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +46%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $25 +$18 +71%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 +$24 +28%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $25 +$30 +119%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $16 +$14 +93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$215 +72%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $76 +$98 +129%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$14 +55%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $102 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $25 +$39 +152%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $25 19h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $25 24h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $25 29h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 34h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 97¢ $50 47h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 97¢ $50 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 36¢ $93 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $102 2d
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $55 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $165 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $50 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $51 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $100 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $107 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $42 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $100 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.20 · official $689.57 (match) · 850 history records