Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x558e…ce54 sports 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$8
sports 29% −$98
world 26% +$72
politics 10% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 13% -4.7%
≤30d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 13% -4.7%
≤90d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 13% -4.7%
all 22 +3.6% -6.3% 45% 18% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 18% -11.1%
10% -15.2% 14% -19.6%
15% -23.4% 9% -27.4%
20% -30.9% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage229d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $351 −$3 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $301 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $280 +$80 +29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$7 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -30%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Nets vs. Magic Nov 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Hawks vs. Jazz Nov 14 $113 +$23 +20%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 14 $100 +$113 +112%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 13 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 11 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $348 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $351 42h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $299 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $100 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $360 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $280 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $193 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $200 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 92¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 84¢ $3 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 92¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $4 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 7d
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen BUY Greet Minnen 66¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records