Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x558e…2ee7 other 19 markets active 24d ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,215 (+3%) realized +$1,215 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2,052per market
Trades / day131.5pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$8,272
politics 19% −$5,553
sports 13% +$5,633
other 12% +$149
economics 12% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -98.5%
≤90d 19 +8.5% -1.8% 53% 42% +11.3%
all 19 +8.5% -1.8% 53% 42% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 42% +11.3%
10% -11.2% 37% +0.6%
15% ← realistic here -19.8% 37% -9.1%
20% -27.7% 32% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$2,070) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
65.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,597 vs −$915 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$2,052
Trades / day131.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $7,207 −$5,723 -79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 20 $116 −$112 -97%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 11 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $369 +$202 +55%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $661 +$32 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 10 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $6,074 −$6 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $221 +$171 +77%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $4,700 +$5,300 +113%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $154 +$8 +5%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $1,750 −$750 -43%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,790 +$1,207 +67%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $579 −$398 -69%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $167 +$83 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $288 −$259 -90%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $10,263 +$8,537 +83%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $1,679 +$179 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $2,070 −$71 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 27 $600 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $0 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $0 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $38 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $10 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $6 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $10 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $10 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $5 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $5 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $0 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $0 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $2 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $9 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $23 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $5 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $4 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $33 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $20 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $1 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $5 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $11 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $2 23d
Trump kiss by May 31? SELL No $4 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records