Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5590…7a3f other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,288 (-58%) realized −$9,247 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,790per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$238
14 days−$8,859
30 days−$8,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$9,914
other 12% +$15
crypto 8% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.5% -7.2% 80% 60% -1.7%
≤30d 6 -11.4% -19.9% 67% 50% -67.0%
≤90d 8 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 50% -66.0%
all 8 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 50% -66.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 50% -66.0%
10% -14.1% 25% -69.2%
15% -22.4% 12% -72.2%
20% -30.0% 12% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$3,447 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized−$9,247
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1,790
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $589 $548 −$41 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $515 +$109 +21%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $278 −$147 -53%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,356 +$182 +13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $308 +$74 +24%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $288 +$20 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $11,204 −$9,097 -81%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1,403 −$1,097 -78%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $150 +$280 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $624 10m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $606 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $131 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $278 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1,254 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $372 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $383 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $308 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $288 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $284 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $985 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $985 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $694 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $70 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $1,364 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $706 20d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $722 22d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $516 22d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $65 22d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $1,419 27d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $454 31d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 35¢ $603 38d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 35¢ $1,152 39d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 36¢ $1,189 41d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $991 58d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 59d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $130 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.78 · official $550.34 (match) · 96 history records