Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x5593…732e other 8 markets active 19h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$102 (+25%) realized +$92 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$31
other 31% +$55
weather 15% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.4% +18.9% 83% 67% +13.4%
≤30d 6 +31.4% +18.9% 83% 67% +13.4%
≤90d 6 +31.4% +18.9% 83% 67% +13.4%
all 6 +31.4% +18.9% 83% 67% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 67% +13.4%
10% +7.5% 50% +2.5%
15% -2.8% 50% -7.4%
20% -12.4% 33% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$0 · ×185.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×928.6 per $1 lost it wins $928.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $48 $65 +$16 (+33%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$29 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $74 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.03 · official $68.03 (match) · 14 history records