Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5597…c6fb weather 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,993 (-8%) realized −$2,993 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%100W / 148L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$18
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$3,364
other 0% +$70
sports 0% +$18
crypto 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.4% -4.7% 61% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 53 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 28% -19.1%
≤90d 248 -21.6% -29.0% 40% 26% -17.8%
all 248 -21.6% -29.0% 40% 26% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 26% -17.8%
10% -35.8% 18% -25.6%
15% -42.0% 14% -32.8%
20% -47.7% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$50 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,993
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses100 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage69d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 +$70 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $252 −$50 -20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $231 +$26 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $207 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $187 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $155 +$31 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $69 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $53 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $234 −$138 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $208 −$45 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $76 −$48 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $220 +$77 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 −$40 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $400 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $147 −$25 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $105 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $794 −$785 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $740 +$52 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $683 +$59 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $632 +$51 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $573 +$55 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $513 +$64 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $302 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? May 31 $702 −$104 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $20 −$17 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $751 −$649 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $1,092 −$367 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $1,005 +$94 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $858 +$178 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $754 +$88 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $703 +$62 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $653 +$51 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $651 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 71¢ $202 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $252 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $70 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $231 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $85 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1271 history records