Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5597…67cd crypto 1782 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$680 (-2%) realized −$5,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate85%1727W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day97.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,379
7 days−$5,382
14 days−$5,426
30 days−$5,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 774 -21.2% -28.7% 67% 3% -89.6%
≤30d 2029 -8.5% -17.2% 85% 3% -21.1%
≤90d 2029 -8.5% -17.2% 85% 3% -21.1%
all 2029 -8.5% -17.2% 85% 3% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 3% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 0% -28.6%
15% -32.3% 0% -35.5%
20% -39.0% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1727 / 302
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2029 / 1782
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day97.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.66 · official $33.66 (match) · 3500 history records