Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x559e…760d other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$104 (-12%) realized −$41 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$5
crypto 18% −$63
sports 12% −$55
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -18.2% -26.0% 19% 14% -15.7%
≤30d 21 -18.2% -26.0% 19% 14% -15.7%
≤90d 21 -18.2% -26.0% 19% 14% -15.7%
all 21 -18.2% -26.0% 19% 14% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 14% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 14% -23.7%
15% -39.5% 14% -31.1%
20% -45.5% 14% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$12 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Yes $84 $29 −$55 (-65%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $20 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $12 +$38 +326%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $59 +$98 +167%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 24 $138 −$22 -16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 24 $129 −$26 -20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 34¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes $9 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 7h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $8 15h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.85 · official $52.85 (match) · 104 history records