Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55a3…5af0 crypto 1079 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,999 (-3%) realized −$2,999 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%518W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.5% -29.8% 33% 33% -21.4%
≤30d 604 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 1079 -7.1% -16.0% 48% 48% -14.4%
all 1079 -7.1% -16.0% 48% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 48% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 46% -22.6%
15% -31.4% 45% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 43% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$87 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,999
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses518 / 561
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage68d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions (484 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $192 −$42 -22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $191 −$184 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $175 −$166 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $272 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $196 +$170 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $149 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $196 −$189 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $186 +$165 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $174 +$216 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $125 +$121 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $62 −$56 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$35 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $93 +$73 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $42 +$51 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $62 +$35 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $308 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $151 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $195 −$189 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $140 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $60 +$70 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$29 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $142 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $88 48m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $89 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $191 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $175 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $270 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $366 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $247 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2677 history records