Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55a4…4d0a sports 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-17%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$62
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$10
other 40% −$39
economics 6% −$13
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 36% -31.7%
≤30d 39 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 36% -26.2%
≤90d 39 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 36% -26.2%
all 39 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 36% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 36% -26.2%
10% -30.2% 36% -33.3%
15% -37.0% 28% -39.7%
20% -43.1% 23% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$9 +178%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$36 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $3 +$7 +226%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$4 +52%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$5 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$2 +34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $3 +$9 +344%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 +$16 +506%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 09 $92 +$2 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $1 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 14¢ $2 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 SELL Under $0 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 37¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 20¢ $2 6d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 30¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $8 6d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 23¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 19¢ $3 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 30¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 65¢ $5 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $1.12 (match) · 63 history records