Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x55a4…e52b politics 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,927 (-1%) realized −$1,927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 136L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$34
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$182
other 42% −$107
sports 6% −$1,645
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% −$18
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 74 +1.4% -8.3% 5% 4% -10.6%
all 159 -4.1% -13.2% 14% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 9% -10.6%
10% -21.5% 8% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 8% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,337) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$1,927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,936 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,360 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,162 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,405 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,839 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,882 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,608 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,293 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,122 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $63 +$50 +79%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,777 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $602 +$2 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,259 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,754 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $5,145 −$7 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $64 +$32 +50%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $57 +$104 +180%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $6,201 −$7 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,416 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,258 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,284 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $2,361 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $532 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $533 5h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $565 23h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $566 25h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 28h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 31h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $686 47h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $687 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $411 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $412 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $435 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $435 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $364 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $444 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $445 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $880 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $881 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $912 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $914 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $893 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $894 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $843 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $995 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $996 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,189 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,191 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.42 · official $302.42 (match) · 504 history records