Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55a4…1574 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-25%) realized −$252 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$39
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$174
other 31% −$102
politics 22% +$8
crypto 3% +$1
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -41.2%
≤30d 13 -26.9% -33.8% 31% 31% -28.6%
≤90d 34 -20.6% -28.2% 29% 29% -41.2%
all 34 -20.6% -28.2% 29% 29% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 29% -41.2%
10% -35.1% 29% -46.9%
15% -41.3% 29% -52.0%
20% -47.1% 26% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)34 / 53
History coverage60d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +172%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $21 +$11 +55%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $22 +$13 +57%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 10 $30 −$8 -26%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $100 −$37 -37%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 29 $12 −$1 -11%
Shymkent 2: Vladyslav Orlov vs Mili Poljicak Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 24 $10 +$19 +195%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $30 +$123 +410%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17? Apr 20 $30 +$14 +45%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.68 · official $289.69 (match) · 143 history records