Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55a6…eeb0 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$609 (+4%) realized +$658 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%52W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,230
7 days+$1,237
14 days+$1,237
30 days+$1,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$760
crypto 24% −$287
other 5% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.0% -0.4% 42% 42% +12.8%
≤30d 12 +10.0% -0.4% 42% 42% +12.8%
≤90d 85 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 49% -7.0%
all 95 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 51% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 51% -6.8%
10% -17.0% 48% -15.7%
15% -25.0% 42% -23.9%
20% -32.4% 36% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$150 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized+$658
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses52 / 43
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage150d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 11¢ 10¢ $571 $521 −$49 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $727 −$141 -19%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $441 −$305 -69%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $474 +$562 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $967 +$1,595 +165%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 17 $481 −$481 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $375 −$319 -85%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $228 −$225 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $219 −$95 -44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $289 +$404 +140%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Apr 24 $551 −$542 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Apr 24 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 20 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 20 $8 $0 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 19 $335 +$216 +64%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 19 $470 −$348 -74%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 19 $200 −$6 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $200 −$175 -88%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 19 $200 −$110 -55%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $200 +$223 +112%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 19 $200 −$130 -65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 18 $200 +$344 +172%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Apr 18 $200 +$146 +73%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 18 $258 +$191 +74%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Apr 18 $165 +$42 +26%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 18 $420 +$178 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 18 $118 +$86 +73%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 18 $100 −$62 -62%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 18 $100 −$25 -25%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 18 $110 +$95 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 18 $220 +$179 +81%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 18 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Apr 17 $124 +$96 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 17 $144 +$97 +67%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Apr 17 $143 +$184 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 17 $200 −$166 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 17 $200 +$98 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 17 $100 +$25 +25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 17 $130 +$8 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 11¢ $586 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 27¢ $586 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $727 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $136 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $441 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $474 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $2,563 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $967 22h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $481 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil $56 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $375 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $228 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 31¢ $124 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $219 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $289 6d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $360 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 58d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies $8 58d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $551 58d
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $551 58d
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $335 59d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 15¢ $122 59d
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 58¢ $194 59d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros $25 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.04 · official $521.04 (match) · 216 history records