Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55a9…a743 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%46W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$9
crypto 9% +$1
other 4% −$3
politics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 64 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses46 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage546d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Mar 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 20 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 123d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $33 183d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 242d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 335d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.33 · official $56.33 (match) · 133 history records