Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
55 0x55aa…ce71 tech 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$9
other 27% −$1
sports 18% −$4
economics 6% −$1
tech 6% +$47
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +2.4% -7.3% 34% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$996) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage212d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 12 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $631 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 16 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $111 +$1 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $106 +$6 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $60 +$2 +3%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 18 $415 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $71 +$4 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $47 +$24 +51%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $45 +$2 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 3h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 3h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 5h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $105 5h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $105 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $994 36d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $996 36d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $995 36d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $996 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $996 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $997 36d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $1,000 36d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $1,002 36d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 36d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 36d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 36d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,003 36d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 36d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 58d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $627 64d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 64d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $627 64d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $628 64d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $628 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.61 · official $102.61 (match) · 79 history records