Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55b8…4b29 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$333 (-10%) realized −$408 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$424
14 days−$424
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$133
sports 38% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.1% -34.9% 31% 23% -45.0%
≤30d 13 -28.1% -34.9% 31% 23% -45.0%
≤90d 13 -28.1% -34.9% 31% 23% -45.0%
all 13 -28.1% -34.9% 31% 23% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 23% -45.0%
10% -41.1% 15% -50.3%
15% -46.8% 15% -55.1%
20% -52.0% 8% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$56 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,447
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions9
Markets (closed)13 / 22
History coverage10d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $700 $747 +$47 (+7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $570 $688 +$118 (+21%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $657 $598 −$59 (-9%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 63¢ 60¢ $164 $156 −$8 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 58¢ 50¢ $117 $101 −$16 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 37¢ 30¢ $37 $30 −$6 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $196 −$160 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$37 -74%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$32 -64%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $243 +$23 +10%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $150 −$61 -40%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 −$31 -61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 +$30 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $0 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 14¢ $36 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $13 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $18 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $50 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $109 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 66¢ $148 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 31¢ $90 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 13¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $45 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $61 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $51 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 63¢ $63 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 64¢ $81 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $48 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $53 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,446.63 · official $2,446.63 (match) · 78 history records