Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55b8…faf5 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$26
politics 24% −$9
sports 8% +$60
crypto 7% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 114 +4.4% -5.5% 15% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -14.6% 5% -18.1%
15% -22.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage136d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $241 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $431 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $411 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $458 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $474 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $491 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $470 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 01 $649 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $251 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 32d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 40d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 66d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 67d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 67d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 67d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 68d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 68d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $203 68d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $203 68d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 68d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 68d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 68d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 69d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $256 69d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $256 69d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $201 69d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 69d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $232 69d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $232 69d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 69d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.91 · official $78.91 (match) · 298 history records